fivethirtyeight.com: Most People — And Perhaps Most Clergy — Don’t Want Political Endorsements In Church

At the National Prayer Breakfast on Thursday, President Trump made headlines by declaring that he would “totally destroy” a decades-old tax provision that prevents pastors and other religious leaders from endorsing political candidates. Some evangelical supporters have praised his statement, while opponents to the change are concerned that it signals an end to long-held provisions that ensure the separation of church and state. But even if the law is removed, churches and pastors may be unlikely to change how they engage politically — a majority of Americans don’t appear to want too much electoral politics in their church. We also have several surveys of clergy members showing the same thing. [read more]

MonkeyCage – When evangelical clergy oppose Trump, their flocks listen. But they’re not speaking up.

Although Donald Trump is doing less well among evangelicals than George W. Bush, John McCain or Mitt Romney did, analysts have suggested that many evangelicals support the Republican nominee because of long-standing “culture war” issues such as abortion and gay rights. Trump has said he is antiabortion and promised to appoint conservative justices to the Supreme Court, so evangelicals are willing to set aside concerns about his moral character. It may also be that they support Trump simply because he’s not Hillary Clinton. Partisanship is powerful.

Our research points to another factor…[read more]

fivethirtyeight.com: Americans May Be Too Religious To Embrace Socialism

For over a century, scholars have wondered why the United States has never had a viable socialist movement. Socialist parties in other Western democracies, such as Britain’s Labour Party and Germany’s Social Democratic Party, are regularly in and out of power, but the best socialist showing for president in the U.S. was Eugene Debs’s 6 percent in 1912. [read more]

Vox.com: When the Iowa Caucus Goes to Church

http://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2016/2/1/10888852/iowa-caucus-churches

In the buildup to the Iowa caucuses, much of the media attention has been on religion — of the candidates and of Iowa’s caucus-goers. Though less discussed, religion also shows up in where the meetings in Iowa’s 1,681 precincts take place, as many will caucus in a church. Has the religious right captured the Republican Party, seeking to skew the election by caucusing in churches? Not quite. [Head to story

These are two figures that we meant to accompany the piece.

 The figure shows that selection of churches as caucus sites was quite rare among small population counties and very common among large population counties. The correlation is about r=.3.
The figure shows that selection of churches as caucus sites was quite rare among small population counties and very common among large population counties. The correlation is about r=.3.
 The figure shows that choosing churches as caucus sites is only common in more religiously diverse counties (diversity is captured using a herfindahl index using 2010 RCMS data available from theARDA.com.  By the way, this holds in a multivariate model with controls. 
The figure shows that choosing churches as caucus sites is only common in more religiously diverse counties (diversity is captured using a herfindahl index using 2010 RCMS data available from theARDA.com.  By the way, this holds in a multivariate model with controls. 

fivethirtyeight.com : Mapping the “War on Christmas.” (with Andy Lewis)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-to-say-merry-christmas-vs-happy-holidays/

‘Tis the season for some to take offense when a store clerk says “happy holidays” instead of “merry Christmas,” or when a coffee chain converts to plain red cups for the holiday. The “war on Christmas” trope seems to surface with Black Friday sales, but who is actually at war?

It is easy to imagine saying “merry Christmas” as another cudgel in the culture wars between Christians and the irreligious. The actual story, however, is much more nuanced. Public Religion Research Institute asked a…[head to story]

On The Monkey Cage: Mike Huckabee’s attack on the Supreme Court could work. Here’s how.

By Paul A. Djupe and Andrew R. Lewis

For many, the national debate over same-sex marriage culminated on Friday with the United States Supreme Court’s 5-4 decision in favor. However, some conservatives, such as Mike Huckabee, haven’t admitted defeat. Instead, they have attacked the Supreme Court itself, encouraging people and future presidents to rebuff the Court’s decision. Could his argument work?  New data suggests that it could.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/06/30/mike-huckabees-attack-on-the-supreme-court-could-work-heres-how/

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